Part 1- Traditional Blogs Are Dying Intro & Current Stats 

Part 2- Traditional Blogs Are Dying- Long Run Projection Rates

Section 3: The Problems

So as you have read you might already have come to some personal conclusions as to what the major problems currently are for businesses and professionals in the blogging world right now. But, apply the math and future projections and these problems will only compound.

(A) OVERSATURATION-Traditional Text Blogs are drowning themselves based on current growth rates, making it harder and harder to stand out in the crowd.

(B) SPLOGGS-Spam blogs are a constant problem trying to snuff out relevant web content, making it even harder and harder to stand out in the crowd, and as well chewing up valuable time dealing with spam.

(C) Customers and readers are becoming dismissive of the impersonal old fashioned websites, and are flocking to companies and bloggers who innovate with blogs that connect on a more personal level delivering TRULY GOOD CONTENT with video, audio and micro blogging, which are quicly becoming the new base standard.

So what does this all translate into?

This means for companies and individual bloggers that don’t try and stay ahead of the curve, it is likely that they will achieve moderate to little success from traditional blogging.

The amount of effort that is required in promoting a traditional blog to massive popularity is becoming akin to a musician landing a recording contract or an actor trying to land a major Hollywood role. Is it possible, Yes. Is it likely for 99% of bloggers, NO! It is an unfortunate truth in the blogosphere, as there are many, many talented bloggers who will largely go unnoticed because they didn’t innovate and stay ahead of the curve.

A few years back it was almost as simple as throwing up a blog, creating some quality content, and watching the traffic magically appear. Now days, more and more bloggers are spitting out fantastic content, but are having to devote just as much, if not more time to  traffic generation.

Here are some traditional methods bloggers use to try and drive eyeballs to their blogs (of which each day that passes become less and less effective):

Figure 1.60

The above methods are just scratching the surface, and are currently resulting in mediocre results for the majority of bloggers. They are having to go to more and more extreme methods to try and stand out from the crowd and get noticed.

There are currently 3,950,000 Google Results for “blogging ebook”

There are currently 10,600,000 result for “blog traffic”

Whole industries have developed around traffic generation, and strategies range from simple and clean, to highly suspect and likely to get your blog banned from Google or other search engines.

Figure 1.61

The problem with most of the above method(s), in Figure 1.61  is that in combination with the growing number of blogs, and the growing number of bloggers trying to implement silver bullet style solutions to generate traffic, it is causing even more dilution in an over saturated market.

The core illness or symptoms in the blogosphere that are killing traditional blogs are; oversaturation & sploggs. It will be up to the blog community to bury their dead, innovate and move on.

If you don’t begin to change now, you will be left behind!

… Please Come Back Later This Week to Read The Final Conculsion of Traditional Blogs Are Dying- Part 4 ‘How To Stay Ahead of the Curve & Profit’

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References:

Figure 1.60 http://technorati.com/blogging/state-of-the-blogosphere/the-how-of-blogging/

Figure 1.61 Screenshot of Get Traffic section of  a Black Hat forum.

Click Here To Go Back To Read The Intro Post & Section 1

Section 2: Long Run Projection Rates

Using Technorati’s math of 133 Million Blogs worldwide, and disregarding the generally excepted 180 Million blogs number (often quoted online) I did a simple growth chart. As you will see in figure 1.51 below, if blogs were just to simply keep growing at the pace they are now of about 94 Million blogs added each year, by 2018 we will have over 1 Billion blogs online.

Figure 1.51

The reality is that growth is speeding up, not slowing down. If blogs did not speed up their growth and are currently posting about 7.4 Million articles every 120 days or over 22 Million per year, then by 2010 there will be over 50 million blog posts being added each year.

Let’s consider if growth compounds.

Figure 1.52

By 2013 there could be over 1 Billion Blogs online.

In all likelihood, the compound growth scenario in Figure 1.52 is probably most accurate considering 78% of the 6.6 Billion people on the planet aren’t online yet. As you will see in Figure 1.53 below, over 1 Billion new internet users came online in just the last 8 years, many of whom decided to blog. So, if the annual growth rate of new internet users’ stays constant or grows, then this means even more competition and dilution for the current 133 Million blogs.

Figure 1.53

Click Here to Go To Part 3 of Traditional Blogs Are Dying- The Problems

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References

Traditional Blogs are Dying & Why You Need to Stay Ahead of the Curve to Profit

This is part one of a four part quasi White Paper I have put together on the changing and controversial landscape of traditional blogging. My hope is to create a conversation on whether people agree or disagree that traditional blogs are dying, and what the future holds for the blogosphere.

Outline:

Intro: The Blogosphere’s Problems Are Your Opportunity

Section 1: Current Stats on the Blogosphere

Section 2: Long Run Projection Rates

Section 3: The Problem(s)

Section 4: How to Stay Ahead of The Curve & Profit

Conclusion: The Death of the Traditional Blog Is Your Opportunity To Stay Ahead of The Curve

Intro: The Blogosphere’s Problems Are Your Opportunity

What is the problem?

The blogosphere needs some form of birth control, as with current growth rates by 2010, there will be approximately 300 Million blogs online making it next to impossible for 99% of regular companies, professionals and personal bloggers to benefit from traditional blogging. There is not going to be a magical pill to stop the growth.

3 Blogs Are Born Every Second

As you will see through out this White Paper there is a fundamental paradigm shift going on in the elite circles of the Blogosphere towards multi-media blogging & micro blogging as the death of traditional blogging takes hold. This shift is occurring because it has to, in order to keep blogs alive and relevant. The statistics that you will read in Section 1 and projected growth rates in Section 2 will astound you, and you will begin to understand why the old school style text blog is a dying breed (Only A Select Few Will Survive)!

Section 1: Current Statistics on the Blogosphere

Many of the statistics you will see here are cast in a positive light, as they were drawn from over 1000 bloggers who took part in Technorati’s.com 2008 State of The Blogosphere Survey. I am highlighting the positive aspects, because I want to be very clear that the opportunity for blogging, into 2009 and beyond, is nothing short of amazing. But as you will also see, there is a darker side of the Blogosphere that Technorati did not delve into. It is this darker side, and overpopulation of new blogs that pose the majority of problems that will need to be overcome in the coming years and decade.

Figure 1.10

With three new blogs coming online every second it is hard to fathom the numbers. With Technorati’s 133 Million blogs on record, one way to measure the statistical significance of the all the new content coming online is to look at ping statistics. A ping occurs when a blog posts a new article.

As you will see in Figure 1.11 below, 93% of Spinn3r’s hourly pings are from spam blogs. Technorati safeguards itself and its members from this spam, but the blogosphere increasingly has to fight this new reality.

If you are a blogger, whether corporate or personal this is a major problem which is costing you or your company time and money.

Why are spam blogs so pervasive? Simple answer… its profitable!

Here are what bloggers are writing about:

Figure 1.30

So why do bloggers blog anyways?

Figure 1.40

Considering only 21% of bloggers make any money at all, it appears many of the remaining bloggers will at some point try and monetize their blog. As you will see in the next section on Long Run Projections, this will be a very difficult task with fierce competition from not only the existing blogosphere, but the millions of new internet users that will choose to blog.

Figure 1.41

Yes, blogging can be lucrative.

If you find yourself in the top 1%, then your blog is responsible for over $200,000 in revenue each year. These top earners also skew the numbers, and as a result have many traditional blog newbie’s chasing a carrot that is 99% unachievable.

Having said all that, the future of multimedia and micro blogging is bright… it just won’t be with traditional text only blogs.

In short, the blogosphere is clearly changing and although the stats are very clear the opportunity is great, there are severe problems to overcome from overpopulation and the increase of spam blogs.

…cont

Click Here To Read Part 2 of Traditional Blogs Are Dying- Long Run Projection Rates

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References

Figure 1.10 http://technorati.com/blogging/state-of-the-blogosphere/

Figure 1.11 http://blog.spinn3r.com/2008/01/blog-ping-and-s.html

Figure 1.12 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spam_blog

Figure 1.30 http://technorati.com/blogging/state-of-the-blogosphere/the-what-and-why-of-blogging/

Figure 1.40 http://technorati.com/blogging/state-of-the-blogosphere/the-what-and-why-of-blogging/

Figure 1.41 http://technorati.com/blogging/state-of-the-blogosphere/blogging-for-profit/

Figure 1.50 http://technorati.com/blogging/state-of-the-blogosphere/brands-enter-the-blogosphere/