Traditional Blogs Are Dying – Part 2
Click Here To Go Back To Read The Intro Post & Section 1
Section 2: Long Run Projection Rates
Using Technorati’s math of 133 Million Blogs worldwide, and disregarding the generally excepted 180 Million blogs number (often quoted online) I did a simple growth chart. As you will see in figure 1.51 below, if blogs were just to simply keep growing at the pace they are now of about 94 Million blogs added each year, by 2018 we will have over 1 Billion blogs online.
Figure 1.51
The reality is that growth is speeding up, not slowing down. If blogs did not speed up their growth and are currently posting about 7.4 Million articles every 120 days or over 22 Million per year, then by 2010 there will be over 50 million blog posts being added each year.
Let’s consider if growth compounds.
Figure 1.52
|
2008 |
2009 |
2010 |
2011 |
2012 |
|
| Blogs |
133,000,000 |
199,500,000 |
299,250,000 |
448,875,000 |
673,312,500 |
By 2013 there could be over 1 Billion Blogs online.
In all likelihood, the compound growth scenario in Figure 1.52 is probably most accurate considering 78% of the 6.6 Billion people on the planet aren’t online yet. As you will see in Figure 1.53 below, over 1 Billion new internet users came online in just the last 8 years, many of whom decided to blog. So, if the annual growth rate of new internet users’ stays constant or grows, then this means even more competition and dilution for the current 133 Million blogs.
Figure 1.53
Click Here to Go To Part 3 of Traditional Blogs Are Dying- The Problems
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References
Figure 1.51 LeeRaito.com Simple Growth Projection (Blogs growing at 94,608,000 blogs per year) Figure 1.52 LeeRaito.com Compound Growth Projection (Blogs compounded growth of 50%/year) Figure 1.53 World Internet Net User Statistics http://www.internetworldstats.com/stats2.htm
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